Q1 2024 Capital Market Assumptions

Fabian Scheler

March 28, 2024

What return can reasonably be expected from a given multi-asset portfolio in the medium to long term? The answer depends on various factors like aggregate valuation ratios and interest rates. Here are our latest assumptions.


As Benjamin Graham famously said: “In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine”. In other words, while the price of an asset can fluctuate wildly and often arbitrarily, depending on the mood of the moment or the flow and liquidity factors, it tends to follow its fair value eventually. Now, Keynes already stated: “In the long run, we are all dead”. Nevertheless, we believe that there is value in trying to understand the given economic and market environment and derive some estimates for the interim period.

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