The year ahead - a brief recap of consensus expectations

Fabian Scheler

January 28, 2022

December and January are the months of investment outlooks. So we skimmed read quite a few 'year ahead' publications, summarised them and are now looking forward to reviewing this article again in 11 months.

3 Minute Read
Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it involves the future.

There is a saying that in financial forecasting, you should always mention what you think is going to happen or when it will happen but never both.
This makes the publication of annual outlooks a particularly thankless game.

Not only is the forecaster expected to provide an opinion on what is going to happen, but, as if this was not difficult enough, the prediction is also supposed to fit into an arbitrary time. 2022, in particular, seems to do everything possible to mock economic and market augurs, given that the first weeks of January already prompted such substantial changes in the economic and market environment.

We, therefore, have a lot of respect for the analysts who tirelessly produce the comprehensive investment outlooks that keep the buy-side busy in January.

The analyst's dilemma
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