The 2024 recap of consensus expectations

Fabian Scheler

January 5, 2024

What's in stock for 2024? Following a tradition we started in 2022, we have again reviewed and summarized the market outlooks published by leading banks and asset managers.

10 Minute Read
About this publication

Every year again, the most prestigious banks, asset managers and consultancies publish extensive market and economic outlooks highlighting key themes and convictions for the year ahead.

While the half-life of these articles is debatable, to put it politely, we nevertheless believe that these publications provide a good snapshot of consensus risks and opportunities at a given point in time.Two years ago, we, therefore, made a first effort to summarize the views expressed by a broader range of such outlook publications and published this article, which is quite interesting to reread today with the benefit of hindsight (It is especially encouraging to see that our conclusion: “The broad, bullish consensus on equities leaves us with an uneasy feeling” at the time aged rather well).

Since then, a previously hardly known company called OpenAI launched a small tool called ChatGPT that turned the internet upside down and put us in the position of repeating 2022’s exercise in a significantly more systematic way. In other words, we took a list of 48 outlook publications, queried them on key topics surrounding economic growth and the outlook for stocks and bonds in different geographies and compiled a database containing the respective results for all publications (an accessible version in Excel, as well as the PDF versions of all publications, is available upon request).

The final summary is here in front of you, expressing the views of the aggregated consensus, not those of Amadeus, without any claim to completeness.For a slightly different approach to the topic, we recommend this amusing read by the FT. We wish all our readers a happy new year and much success in 2024.

We wish all our readers a happy new year and much success in 2024.

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